Turkiye’s Fidan issues veiled threat to Israel

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan last week gave an interview to Japanese media outlet Nikkei Asia. In it, Fidan made an interesting proposition to Israel, saying it could be part of a regional security architecture if it gave the Palestinians a state on the 1967 borders. On the surface, this might look like a conciliatory message. However, at its core, it carries a veiled threat.

When asked about Israel, Fidan started speaking with a positive tone, stating that the two countries have had diplomatic relations since 1949 and, before the Gaza war, bilateral trade was worth about $10 billion a year. He explained that Turkiye stopped trading with Israel in response to its slaughter of Palestinians but added that the relationship could resume if Israel stopped the carnage and allowed Gazans to access food, shelter, medicine and water. He dismissed the claim that Turkiye is a threat to Israel.

This comes after Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard gave an interview in which he said Israel’s next war “will probably be against Turkiye and Egypt.” Though Pollard mentioned both Turkiye and Egypt, his focus was mainly on the former. He said he has been following the development of Ankara’s military doctrine and that any fight with it would be harder than the one with Iran. Hence, for Pollard, Israel should finish off Iran, Gaza and Hezbollah in order to be set for the big fight with Turkiye.

Fidan, meanwhile, said that states should respect each other’s sovereignty and integrity. He also pointed to the fact that regional countries have a golden opportunity to learn from recent history and cooperate.

Israel is no longer only a threat to the Palestinians, Lebanon and Iran. It is a threat to the rest of the region too

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Fidan’s statement did not come from a void, nor is it empty rhetoric. There is a real convergence happening in the region that is driven by the Israeli threat. Israel has always thrived on unconditional Western — namely American — support and, more importantly, regional divisions. It has been very skillful in playing on the animosity and competition among regional states. It first allied itself with Iran at the time of the shah, then with Kemalist Turkiye, and then it tried to team up with the Gulf states against the threat of Iran. It always tried to portray itself as the lesser evil, as regional states had a more immediate threat: the nationalist wave of Nasserism in the 1950s and 1960s, the Muslim Brotherhood movement or Iran and its export of the revolution.

However, Israel’s unbridled actions are today perceived as the main threat. Regional states view Israel as the power that is seeking to destabilize the region. There is nothing that unites people and states more than a threat. And Israel is no longer only a threat to the Palestinians, Lebanon and Iran. It is a threat to the rest of the region too.

Pollard spelled it out clearly. The next war will be with Turkiye and Egypt, two countries that have recognized Israel. Israel’s brutality, contempt for international law and expansionism created this perception of threat. Iran is no longer seen as the main destabilizer in the region — it is Israel. The line of thinking in the region today is as follows: solving problems with Iran is less costly and less damaging than fighting it. Regional countries also realize that containment is no longer an option. The Iran issue needs to be addressed. In fact, as subtly stated by Fidan, Iran can come on to their side.

Fidan said Israel could eventually become part of this framework if it recognized a Palestinian state

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The Turkish foreign minister stated that the cooperation framework or alliance could include Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt and the Arab Gulf states. He added: “When things come normal, maybe Iran should also be part of it.” This is another way of saying that — after the Iran war and once the Arab Gulf states and Turkiye streamline their outstanding security issues with Tehran — the Islamic Republic can join this group.

This would be Israel’s worst nightmare: the Middle East united. The region coming together and exerting pressure on Israel. This calamity would be compounded by the erosion of American and Western support for Tel Aviv.

Fidan said Israel could eventually become part of this cooperation framework if it recognized a Palestinian state, alluding to the Arab Peace Initiative. This initiative was spearheaded by Saudi Arabia in 2002 and adopted by all members of the Arab League. The initiative offers full normalization with Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. Israel has always rejected the proposal. However, Fidan renewed it with a twist.

He said “if that problem is solved,” referring to the issue of Palestinian statehood, “I think the security of Israel will be very much assisted by the regional countries, too.” This clearly means that Israel has a choice. If it accepts the initiative, it can enjoy security that will be guaranteed by the region’s countries. Otherwise, it will be choosing confrontation. And this time, Israel will not be confronting just one country — it would be an alliance. Israel would have no chance when facing such an alliance.

Fidan’s statement was definitely a veiled threat, but it also constituted an offer that Israel should not refuse. However, the chances are that it will refuse the offer, the same way it refused the Arab Peace Initiative. The reason is very simple: Israel’s behavior has shown that its leaders do not believe in peace, they believe in subjugation. Israel might be able to subjugate the Palestinians and the Lebanese for now but, as Pollard said, “the storm is coming.” What Pollard did not grasp is that the storm will be devastating, as Israel will be alone facing a united region.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.